Model Accuracy - Horse Racing Predictor

🎯 Model Accuracy

Tested on 37,913 races from Jan 2024 - Apr 2026

Top pick wins
30.0%
37,913 races tested

The race winner featured in our predicted top 3

63.6%

Courses covered

167

Going conditions

Going Races Top pick % Top 3 %

Firm 1,343

30.8% 67.7%

Good To Firm 3,481

29.8% 61.7%

Good 10,913

30.1% 63.2%

Good To Soft 5,655

30.3% 64.0%

Soft 4,599

31.5% 65.8%

Soft To Heavy 335

30.1% 69.0%

Heavy 2,518

31.4% 67.6%

Standard 7,653

28.1% 61.3%

Standard To Slow 1,416

30.2% 63.0%

Race type Races Top pick % Top 3 %

Flat 25,468

28.3% 60.4%

Hurdle 7,331

34.0% 69.3%

Chase 4,218

32.3% 72.0%

NH Flat 896

32.8% 69.2%

Race class Races Top pick % Top 3 %

Novice 2,809

43.9% 81.5%

Maiden 4,086

39.5% 74.8%

NH Flat 896

32.8% 69.2%

Conditions/Stakes 7,565

32.4% 66.5%

Novice Handicap 1,081

31.8% 70.8%

Handicap 21,476

25.3% 57.5%

Distance Races Top pick % Top 3 %

Sprint (5-6f) 7,199

27.4% 59.9%

7-8f 9,421

28.7% 59.8%

9-10f 4,546

27.7% 60.4%

11-12f 2,525

29.8% 63.4%

13-16f 4,128

33.9% 68.7%

Staying (17f+) 10,094

32.4% 69.2%

Field size Races Top pick % Top 3 %

2-5 runners 5,290

42.4% 85.7%

6-8 runners 11,986

32.7% 70.0%

9-12 runners 13,716

27.0% 57.7%

13+ runners 6,921

21.7% 47.3%

# Racecourse Races Top pick % Top 3 %

1 Clonmel 43

44.2% 74.4%

2 Fair Grounds (USA) 23

43.5% 78.3%

3 Aqueduct (USA) 30

43.3% 76.7%

4 Fakenham 140

42.9% 87.1%

5 Palermo (ARG) 33

42.4% 60.6%

6 Randwick 38

42.1% 71.1%

7 Southwell 256

41.4% 75.4%

8 Sedgefield 227

40.1% 80.2%

9 Kempton 165

40.0% 71.5%

10 Caulfield 40

40.0% 65.0%

11 Plumpton 237

39.7% 80.6%

12 Newton Abbot 191

39.3% 79.6%

13 Lingfield 291

39.2% 73.2%

14 Galway 23

39.1% 73.9%

15 Gulfstream Park 31

38.7% 74.2%

16 Wetherby 251

38.6% 70.9%

17 Del Mar 26

38.5% 53.8%

18 Keeneland (USA) 64

37.5% 67.2%

19 Stratford 227

37.0% 75.8%

20 Perth 176

36.9% 72.2%

21 Oaklawn Park (USA) 30

36.7% 56.7%

22 Warwick 249

36.5% 74.7%

23 Tipperary (IRE) 167

36.5% 65.9%

24 Carlisle 352

36.4% 68.8%

25 Santa Anita 33

36.4% 75.8%

26 Catterick 383

36.0% 72.1%

27 Huntingdon 276

35.9% 75.4%

28 Chepstow 429

35.7% 69.9%

29 Leopardstown 73

35.6% 71.2%

30 Wincanton 229

35.4% 73.4%

31 Churchill Downs (USA) 88

35.2% 68.2%

32 Market Rasen 297

35.0% 76.8%

33 Naas 66

34.8% 68.2%

34 Santa Anita (USA) 124

34.7% 75.0%

35 Punchestown (IRE) 280

34.6% 68.2%

36 Hereford 260

34.6% 75.0%

37 Auteuil 128

34.4% 68.8%

38 Randwick (AUS) 137

34.3% 56.9%

39 Exeter 219

34.2% 73.5%

40 Cork 38

34.2% 71.1%

41 Taunton 208

34.1% 74.0%

42 Uttoxeter 347

34.0% 70.0%

43 Limerick (IRE) 208

33.7% 68.8%

44 Sligo (IRE) 122

33.6% 67.2%

45 Redcar 244

33.6% 63.1%

46 Newmarket (July) 228

33.3% 71.1%

47 Thurles 72

33.3% 66.7%

48 San Siro (ITY) 33

33.3% 69.7%

49 Chukyo (JPN) 27

33.3% 51.9%

50 Chester 214

33.2% 62.6%

51 Brighton 285

33.0% 69.8%

52 Beverley 249

32.9% 64.7%

53 Limerick 79

32.9% 69.6%

54 Navan 73

32.9% 60.3%

55 Del Mar (USA) 70

32.9% 65.7%

56 Ludlow 210

32.9% 71.0%

57 Ripon 210

32.9% 63.8%

58 Downpatrick (IRE) 141

32.6% 66.7%

59 Jebel Ali (UAE) 102

32.4% 62.7%

60 Ffos Las 337

32.3% 69.4%

61 Hexham 189

32.3% 69.3%

62 Epsom 140

32.1% 67.9%

63 Bellewstown (IRE) 128

32.0% 64.8%

64 Musselburgh 353

32.0% 66.0%

65 Chelmsford (AW) 688

32.0% 66.0%

66 Leicester 366

32.0% 70.5%

67 Newcastle 201

31.8% 71.1%

68 Wexford 22

31.8% 72.7%

69 Pontefract 217

31.8% 65.4%

70 Les Landes (JER) 85

31.8% 71.8%

71 Meydan (UAE) 218

31.7% 62.4%

72 Clonmel (IRE) 136

31.6% 68.4%

73 Haydock 421

31.6% 68.4%

74 Gowran Park 38

31.6% 60.5%

75 Down Royal (IRE) 178

31.5% 64.6%

76 Fontwell 273

31.1% 69.6%

77 Bangor-on-Dee 180

31.1% 71.1%

78 Windsor 390

31.0% 61.5%

79 Kelso 201

30.8% 70.1%

80 Wexford (IRE) 156

30.8% 65.4%

81 Lingfield (AW) 830

30.7% 64.7%

82 Punchestown 88

30.7% 76.1%

83 Kempton (AW) 983

30.5% 65.2%

84 Saratoga (USA) 128

30.5% 71.1%

85 Ascot 380

30.3% 61.1%

86 Fairyhouse (IRE) 271

30.3% 65.7%

87 Wolverhampton (AW) 1565

30.2% 65.4%

88 Ayr 442

30.1% 64.0%

89 Kilbeggan (IRE) 140

30.0% 57.9%

90 Hamilton 247

30.0% 60.7%

91 Hanshin (JPN) 27

29.6% 55.6%

92 Southwell (AW) 1195

29.5% 63.8%

93 Sandown 313

29.4% 68.1%

94 Cork (IRE) 276

29.3% 63.8%

95 Navan (IRE) 232

29.3% 60.3%

96 Morphettville (AUS) 41

29.3% 61.0%

97 Listowel (IRE) 144

29.2% 57.6%

98 Auteuil (FR) 511

29.2% 61.8%

99 Yarmouth 319

29.2% 59.2%

100 Salisbury 189

29.1% 66.7%

101 Killarney (IRE) 193

29.0% 68.4%

102 Leopardstown (IRE) 300

29.0% 63.0%

103 Doncaster 570

28.9% 63.7%

104 Gowran Park (IRE) 247

28.7% 60.3%

105 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) 501

28.7% 60.5%

106 Rosehill (AUS) 98

28.6% 57.1%

107 San Isidro (ARG) 28

28.6% 50.0%

108 Dundalk (AW) 258

27.9% 53.1%

109 Flemington 36

27.8% 55.6%

110 Ballinrobe (IRE) 148

27.7% 56.8%

111 Tokyo (JPN) 47

27.7% 51.1%

112 Bahrain 47

27.7% 55.3%

113 Goodwood 257

27.6% 59.9%

114 Curragh (IRE) 355

27.6% 58.9%

115 Cheltenham 261

27.6% 64.4%

116 Tramore (IRE) 160

27.5% 65.0%

117 Sha Tin (HK) 910

27.5% 54.7%

118 Naas (IRE) 288

27.4% 62.2%

119 Cartmel 124

27.4% 62.9%

120 Newcastle (AW) 1290

27.0% 63.4%

121 Thirsk 224

26.8% 55.4%

122 Bath 270

26.7% 62.2%

123 Fairyhouse 75

26.7% 69.3%

124 Compiegne (FR) 207

26.6% 58.9%

125 Nottingham 266

26.3% 59.8%

126 Newbury 460

26.3% 60.2%

127 Aintree 103

26.2% 68.9%

128 Worcester 241

26.1% 61.4%

129 Newmarket 272

26.1% 56.2%

130 Saint-Cloud (FR) 494

25.9% 55.1%

131 Caulfield (AUS) 101

25.7% 52.5%

132 Sha Tin 284

25.7% 52.8%

133 Kyoto (JPN) 47

25.5% 55.3%

134 Eagle Farm (AUS) 47

25.5% 55.3%

135 Roscommon (IRE) 149

25.5% 56.4%

136 Thurles (IRE) 99

25.3% 66.7%

137 Woodbine (CAN) 72

25.0% 63.9%

138 Abu Dhabi 28

25.0% 57.1%

139 Ascot (AUS) 32

25.0% 56.2%

140 Kentucky Downs (USA) 28

25.0% 53.6%

141 Chantilly (FR) 769

24.8% 54.7%

142 Bahrain (BHR) 49

24.5% 51.0%

143 Down Royal 37

24.3% 48.6%

144 Deauville 249

24.1% 47.4%

145 Greyville (SAF) 21

23.8% 61.9%

146 Deauville (FR) 658

23.7% 51.8%

147 Baden-Baden (GER) 30

23.3% 56.7%

148 Flemington (AUS) 73

23.3% 41.1%

149 Happy Valley (HK) 564

22.7% 51.8%

150 Chantilly 238

22.7% 51.7%

151 York 240

22.5% 46.7%

152 Longchamp (FR) 450

22.2% 50.9%

153 Jebel Ali 63

22.2% 58.7%

154 Compiegne 63

22.2% 66.7%

155 Galway (IRE) 172

21.5% 47.7%

156 Happy Valley 187

20.9% 48.7%

157 Gulfstream Park (USA) 70

20.0% 68.6%

158 Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) 45

20.0% 66.7%

159 Meydan 131

19.8% 58.8%

160 Nakayama (JPN) 49

18.4% 44.9%

161 Curragh 39

17.9% 59.0%

162 Abu Dhabi (UAE) 39

17.9% 43.6%

163 Moonee Valley (AUS) 34

17.6% 50.0%

164 Saint-Cloud 92

17.4% 45.7%

165 Gavea (BRZ) 26

15.4% 57.7%

166 Rosehill 34

14.7% 64.7%

167 Doomben (AUS) 20

10.0% 35.0%

When our top pick has X% predicted probability, how often does it actually win?

Predicted range Races Avg predicted Actual win %

Under 15% 2,433 13.2%

14.1%

15-20% 7,296 17.7%

18.8%

20-25% 8,614 22.4%

24.6%

25-30% 7,037 27.4%

29.0%

30-40% 8,072 34.3%

37.8%

40-50% 3,259 44.1%

50.2%

50%+ 1,445 57.6%

65.6%