📊 Live Model Performance

Tracking predictions vs actual results since launch

Races tracked
7641
Our pick won
22.4%
1709 / 7641
Our predicted winner placed in the top 3
55.0%
4199 / 7641
The race winner featured in our predicted top 3
52.4%
Days pending
13

ℹī¸ Pre-race rating reflects card composition (race types, field sizes) and model confidence — not a prediction of individual races. Labels can cluster in streaks during unfavourable periods; April and January are historically the model's weakest months.

Date Pre-Race Rating Winners / Races Win % Place %
2026-10-11 Risky Day 6 / 30 20.0% 50.0%
2026-10-10 Good Day 9 / 51 17.6% 45.1%
2026-10-09 Thin Day 6 / 47 12.8% 38.3%
2026-10-08 Risky Day 4 / 45 8.9% 31.1%
2026-10-07 Mixed Day 11 / 38 28.9% 52.6%
2026-10-06 Thin Day 6 / 35 17.1% 45.7%
2026-10-05 Risky Day 15 / 55 27.3% 47.3%
2026-10-04 Good Day 9 / 29 31.0% 65.5%
2026-10-03 Thin Day 7 / 44 15.9% 54.5%
2026-10-02 Thin Day 9 / 47 19.1% 51.1%
2026-10-01 Mixed Day 6 / 44 13.6% 45.5%
2026-09-30 Thin Day 7 / 38 18.4% 55.3%
2026-09-29 Thin Day 4 / 34 11.8% 47.1%
2026-09-28 Thin Day 9 / 45 20.0% 57.8%
2026-09-27 Mixed Day 2 / 23 8.7% 39.1%
2026-09-26 Risky Day 13 / 53 24.5% 43.4%
2026-09-25 Thin Day 9 / 44 20.5% 38.6%
2026-09-24 Risky Day 4 / 37 10.8% 48.6%
2026-09-23 Risky Day 8 / 35 22.9% 45.7%
2026-09-22 Mixed Day 6 / 36 16.7% 55.6%
2026-09-21 Risky Day 10 / 46 21.7% 39.1%
2026-09-20 Good Day 10 / 21 47.6% 71.4%
2026-09-19 Risky Day 7 / 53 13.2% 45.3%
2026-09-18 Risky Day 4 / 48 8.3% 45.8%
2026-09-17 Risky Day 1 / 39 2.6% 20.5%
2026-09-16 Mixed Day 7 / 35 20.0% 57.1%
2026-09-15 Risky Day 3 / 38 7.9% 42.1%
2026-09-14 Mixed Day 7 / 29 24.1% 41.4%
2026-09-13 Risky Day 6 / 24 25.0% 50.0%
2026-09-12 Risky Day 13 / 48 27.1% 60.4%
2026-09-11 Thin Day 6 / 36 16.7% 44.4%
2026-09-10 Risky Day 12 / 37 32.4% 56.8%
2026-09-09 Thin Day 9 / 37 24.3% 54.1%
2026-09-08 Mixed Day 7 / 37 18.9% 51.4%
2026-09-07 Good Day 9 / 36 25.0% 47.2%
2026-09-06 Good Day 4 / 13 30.8% 61.5%
2026-09-05 Risky Day 9 / 54 16.7% 37.0%
2026-09-04 Mixed Day 9 / 50 18.0% 52.0%
2026-09-03 Thin Day 10 / 48 20.8% 50.0%
2026-09-02 Risky Day 8 / 39 20.5% 43.6%
2026-09-01 Mixed Day 9 / 37 24.3% 48.6%
2026-08-31 Risky Day 7 / 51 13.7% 49.0%
2026-08-30 Risky Day 2 / 27 7.4% 55.6%
2026-08-29 Risky Day 7 / 47 14.9% 42.6%
2026-08-28 Thin Day 12 / 50 24.0% 40.0%
2026-08-27 Mixed Day 10 / 41 24.4% 56.1%
2026-08-26 Risky Day 5 / 31 16.1% 45.2%
2026-08-25 Thin Day 5 / 25 20.0% 56.0%
2026-08-24 Risky Day 6 / 25 24.0% 60.0%
2026-08-23 Thin Day 4 / 20 20.0% 50.0%
2026-08-22 Thin Day 12 / 57 21.1% 43.9%
2026-08-21 Mixed Day 10 / 47 21.3% 40.4%
2026-08-20 Good Day 11 / 45 24.4% 44.4%
2026-08-19 Risky Day 3 / 36 8.3% 33.3%
2026-08-18 Thin Day 5 / 27 18.5% 40.7%
2026-08-17 Risky Day 6 / 25 24.0% 52.0%
2026-08-16 Mixed Day 8 / 30 26.7% 53.3%
2026-08-15 Good Day 17 / 62 27.4% 51.6%
2026-08-14 Good Day 16 / 44 36.4% 61.4%
2026-08-13 Good Day 6 / 31 19.4% 38.7%
2026-08-12 Risky Day 8 / 34 23.5% 55.9%
2026-08-11 Good Day 6 / 25 24.0% 56.0%
2026-08-10 Risky Day 7 / 27 25.9% 40.7%
2026-08-09 Good Day 6 / 27 22.2% 51.9%
2026-08-08 Risky Day 10 / 54 18.5% 48.1%
2026-08-07 Mixed Day 7 / 45 15.6% 44.4%
2026-08-06 Good Day 8 / 46 17.4% 65.2%
2026-08-05 Mixed Day 12 / 33 36.4% 60.6%
2026-08-04 Mixed Day 9 / 27 33.3% 59.3%
2026-08-03 Good Day 7 / 31 22.6% 58.1%
2026-08-02 Mixed Day 4 / 20 20.0% 50.0%
2026-08-01 Mixed Day 14 / 51 27.5% 54.9%
2026-07-31 Thin Day 5 / 49 10.2% 53.1%
2026-07-30 Good Day 8 / 37 21.6% 56.8%
2026-07-29 Good Day 9 / 32 28.1% 71.9%
2026-07-28 Good Day 7 / 34 20.6% 52.9%
2026-07-27 Thin Day 4 / 35 11.4% 51.4%
2026-07-26 Mixed Day 5 / 15 33.3% 66.7%
2026-07-25 Mixed Day 13 / 51 25.5% 49.0%
2026-07-24 Thin Day 9 / 55 16.4% 34.5%
2026-07-23 Good Day 11 / 50 22.0% 46.0%
2026-07-22 Good Day 6 / 39 15.4% 41.0%
2026-07-21 Good Day 5 / 28 17.9% 53.6%
2026-07-20 Mixed Day 10 / 33 30.3% 57.6%
2026-07-19 Good Day 6 / 28 21.4% 67.9%
2026-07-18 Mixed Day 9 / 56 16.1% 50.0%
2026-07-17 Good Day 12 / 54 22.2% 51.9%
2026-07-16 Good Day 11 / 47 23.4% 63.8%
2026-07-15 Good Day 9 / 38 23.7% 57.9%
2026-07-14 Thin Day 13 / 40 32.5% 57.5%
2026-07-13 Mixed Day 13 / 36 36.1% 69.4%
2026-07-12 Good Day 8 / 28 28.6% 53.6%
2026-07-11 Thin Day 15 / 57 26.3% 50.9%
2026-07-10 Thin Day 7 / 49 14.3% 44.9%
2026-07-09 Thin Day 5 / 40 12.5% 55.0%
2026-07-08 Mixed Day 9 / 33 27.3% 39.4%
2026-07-07 Risky Day 4 / 35 11.4% 51.4%
2026-07-06 Risky Day 8 / 35 22.9% 60.0%
2026-07-05 Risky Day 7 / 22 31.8% 72.7%
2026-07-04 Thin Day 16 / 56 28.6% 39.3%
2026-07-03 Mixed Day 7 / 48 14.6% 45.8%
2026-07-02 Mixed Day 12 / 48 25.0% 52.1%
2026-07-01 Risky Day 6 / 36 16.7% 41.7%
2026-06-30 Thin Day 9 / 46 19.6% 58.7%
2026-06-29 Good Day 9 / 34 26.5% 44.1%
2026-06-28 Good Day 6 / 30 20.0% 53.3%
2026-06-27 Good Day 10 / 51 19.6% 60.8%
2026-06-26 Good Day 13 / 49 26.5% 57.1%
2026-06-25 Good Day 3 / 33 9.1% 57.6%
2026-06-24 Risky Day 2 / 13 15.4% 61.5%
2026-06-23 Mixed Day 1 / 27 3.7% 40.7%
2026-06-22 Risky Day 9 / 33 27.3% 57.6%
2026-06-21 Thin Day 4 / 20 20.0% 65.0%
2026-06-20 Thin Day 8 / 48 16.7% 35.4%
2026-06-19 Thin Day 13 / 56 23.2% 50.0%
2026-06-18 Thin Day 11 / 43 25.6% 55.8%
2026-06-17 Mixed Day 6 / 35 17.1% 51.4%
2026-06-16 Mixed Day 6 / 33 18.2% 42.4%
2026-06-15 Risky Day 7 / 37 18.9% 48.6%
2026-06-14 Mixed Day 5 / 29 17.2% 44.8%
2026-06-13 Risky Day 21 / 58 36.2% 55.2%
2026-06-12 Mixed Day 13 / 58 22.4% 51.7%
2026-06-11 Thin Day 12 / 40 30.0% 50.0%
2026-06-10 Mixed Day 7 / 34 20.6% 52.9%
2026-06-09 Risky Day 1 / 33 3.0% 27.3%
2026-06-08 Thin Day 10 / 37 27.0% 56.8%
2026-06-07 Mixed Day 7 / 30 23.3% 53.3%
2026-06-06 Thin Day 14 / 58 24.1% 44.8%
2026-06-05 Risky Day 17 / 57 29.8% 47.4%
2026-06-04 Mixed Day 12 / 43 27.9% 53.5%
2026-06-03 Good Day 10 / 33 30.3% 66.7%
2026-06-02 Mixed Day 4 / 27 14.8% 59.3%
2026-06-01 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 45.2%
2026-05-31 Good Day 6 / 34 17.6% 52.9%
2026-05-30 Thin Day 17 / 57 29.8% 64.9%
2026-05-29 Thin Day 9 / 42 21.4% 54.8%
2026-05-28 Mixed Day 13 / 47 27.7% 59.6%
2026-05-27 Good Day 8 / 42 19.0% 54.8%
2026-05-26 Good Day 13 / 48 27.1% 56.2%
2026-05-25 Good Day 8 / 41 19.5% 58.5%
2026-05-24 Good Day 9 / 29 31.0% 55.2%
2026-05-23 Thin Day 15 / 56 26.8% 48.2%
2026-05-22 Thin Day 14 / 43 32.6% 55.8%
2026-05-21 Thin Day 11 / 44 25.0% 52.3%
2026-05-20 Thin Day 8 / 40 20.0% 57.5%
2026-05-19 Thin Day 10 / 42 23.8% 54.8%
2026-05-18 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 54.8%
2026-05-17 Thin Day 9 / 30 30.0% 60.0%
2026-05-16 Risky Day 8 / 60 13.3% 40.0%
2026-05-15 Mixed Day 15 / 52 28.8% 44.2%
2026-05-14 Thin Day 9 / 35 25.7% 57.1%
2026-05-13 Mixed Day 14 / 42 33.3% 66.7%
2026-05-12 Good Day 14 / 39 35.9% 61.5%
2026-05-11 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 54.8%
2026-05-10 Good Day 6 / 22 27.3% 63.6%
2026-05-09 Thin Day 16 / 64 25.0% 48.4%
2026-05-08 Risky Day 9 / 49 18.4% 55.1%
2026-05-07 Thin Day 12 / 41 29.3% 51.2%
2026-05-06 Mixed Day 12 / 34 35.3% 52.9%
2026-05-05 Thin Day 11 / 32 34.4% 65.6%
2026-05-04 Risky Day 7 / 59 11.9% 45.8%
2026-05-03 Good Day 9 / 36 25.0% 44.4%
2026-05-02 Mixed Day 13 / 53 24.5% 69.8%
2026-05-01 Good Day 8 / 43 18.6% 60.5%
2026-04-30 Thin Day 11 / 43 25.6% 53.5%
2026-04-29 Thin Day 13 / 38 34.2% 60.5%
2026-04-28 Thin Day 7 / 35 20.0% 48.6%
2026-04-27 Risky Day 7 / 28 25.0% 50.0%
2026-04-26 Risky Day 5 / 22 22.7% 40.9%
2026-04-25 Mixed Day 15 / 59 25.4% 54.2%
2026-04-24 Good Day 10 / 51 19.6% 60.8%
2026-04-23 Thin Day 10 / 39 25.6% 51.3%
2026-04-22 Mixed Day 13 / 34 38.2% 70.6%
2026-04-21 Risky Day 10 / 29 34.5% 51.7%
2026-04-20 Thin Day 10 / 37 27.0% 48.6%
2026-04-19 Mixed Day 6 / 29 20.7% 48.3%
2026-04-18 Thin Day 9 / 45 20.0% 48.9%
2026-04-17 Thin Day 8 / 35 22.9% 42.9%
2026-04-16 Good Day 5 / 29 17.2% 51.7%
2026-04-15 Mixed Day 9 / 38 23.7% 52.6%
2026-04-14 Good Day 10 / 35 28.6% 51.4%
2026-04-13 Mixed Day 13 / 29 44.8% 65.5%
2026-04-12 Mixed Day 11 / 36 30.6% 52.8%
2026-04-11 Good Day 11 / 44 25.0% 43.2%
2026-04-10 Good Day 10 / 43 23.3% 62.8%
2026-04-09 Good Day 10 / 35 28.6% 57.1%
2026-04-08 Risky Day 13 / 38 34.2% 60.5%
2026-04-07 Good Day 2 / 23 8.7% 47.8%
2026-04-06 Good Day 10 / 52 19.2% 53.8%
2026-04-05 Good Day 10 / 44 22.7% 61.4%
2026-04-04 Thin Day 11 / 55 20.0% 43.6%
2026-04-03 Risky Day 2 / 22 9.1% 27.3%
2026-04-02 Risky Day 5 / 27 18.5% 59.3%
2026-04-01 Good Day 9 / 33 27.3% 54.5%
2026-03-31 Thin Day 9 / 27 33.3% 63.0%
Going Races Accuracy
Firm 47 34.0%
Soft To Heavy 13 30.8%
Good To Firm 1616 24.7%
Good 3322 22.9%
Good To Soft 537 22.0%
Good To Yielding 294 21.1%
Standard 858 20.3%
Standard / Slow 94 19.1%
Yielding 223 18.8%
Heavy 22 18.2%
Yielding To Soft 95 17.9%
Soft 327 17.4%
Standard To Slow 151 15.9%
Type Races Accuracy
NH Flat 133 28.6%
Chase 648 23.6%
Hurdle 1258 23.5%
Flat 5602 21.8%
Race Class Races Accuracy
Novice 746 33.4%
NH Flat 133 28.6%
Maiden 1036 26.6%
Conditions/Stakes 814 26.5%
Novice Handicap 159 23.3%
Handicap 4753 18.8%
Distance Races Accuracy
Sprint (≤6f) 1780 20.0%
7-8f 1929 22.8%
9-10f 830 19.2%
11-12f 598 24.2%
13-16f 726 26.6%
Staying (17f+) 1778 23.4%
Field Size Races Accuracy
2-5 runners 1104 32.2%
6-8 runners 2511 26.4%
9-12 runners 2674 18.9%
13+ runners 1352 13.6%
Course Races Accuracy
Hereford 26 42.3%
Ludlow 12 41.7%
Plumpton 35 40.0%
Bangor-on-Dee 46 37.0%
Kelso 41 36.6%
Hexham 63 36.5%
Laytown 6 33.3%
Wetherby 22 31.8%
Doncaster 139 30.2%
Huntingdon 30 30.0%
Pontefract 110 30.0%
Catterick 99 29.3%
Salisbury 100 29.0%
Yarmouth 156 28.2%
Limerick 70 27.1%
Newmarket (July) 107 27.1%
Killarney 96 27.1%
Fontwell 63 27.0%
Perth 82 26.8%
Tramore 71 26.8%
Redcar 113 26.5%
York 125 26.4%
Newton Abbot 103 26.2%
Windsor 161 26.1%
Cartmel 58 25.9%
Brighton 89 25.8%
Worcester 109 25.7%
Stratford 78 25.6%
Newcastle (AW) 137 25.5%
Bath 139 25.2%
Lingfield 88 25.0%
Dundalk 8 25.0%
Sedgefield 44 25.0%
Ffos Las 117 24.8%
Newbury 117 24.8%
Carlisle 97 24.7%
Leopardstown 97 24.7%
Hamilton 126 24.6%
Fakenham 25 24.0%
Lingfield (AW) 176 23.9%
Leicester 111 23.4%
Exeter 13 23.1%
Taunton 13 23.1%
Chester 109 22.9%
Newcastle 22 22.7%
Musselburgh 102 22.5%
Sandown 103 22.3%
Listowel 72 22.2%
Market Rasen 72 22.2%
Nottingham 135 22.2%
Gowran Park 105 21.9%
Ripon 109 21.1%
Haydock 96 20.8%
Chepstow 141 20.6%
Curragh 154 20.1%
Wincanton 15 20.0%
Warwick 45 20.0%
Down Royal 66 19.7%
Galway 77 19.5%
Punchestown 72 19.4%
Sligo 57 19.3%
Cork 114 19.3%
Thirsk 109 19.3%
Goodwood 131 19.1%
Bellewstown 63 19.0%
Kempton (AW) 208 18.8%
Navan 71 18.3%
Fairyhouse 82 18.3%
Southwell (AW) 236 18.2%
Aintree 29 17.2%
Wolverhampton (AW) 269 17.1%
Uttoxeter 88 17.0%
Downpatrick 65 16.9%
Epsom Downs 6 16.7%
Naas 80 16.2%
Roscommon 68 16.2%
Ayr 130 16.2%
Newmarket 138 15.9%
Beverley 129 15.5%
Dundalk (AW) 65 15.4%
Southwell 33 15.2%
Kilbeggan 74 14.9%
Ascot 115 14.8%
Thurles 8 12.5%
Ballinrobe 67 11.9%
Clonmel 43 11.6%
Wexford 82 11.0%
Epsom 68 10.3%

When our top pick has X% predicted probability, how often does it actually win?

Predicted range Races Avg predicted Actual win %
Under 15% 2576 12.0% 14.6%
15-20% 2222 17.4% 20.9%
20-25% 1451 22.2% 26.5%
25-30% 743 27.2% 31.2%
30-40% 514 33.8% 37.9%
40-50% 110 43.9% 38.2%
50%+ 25 55.7% 60.0%