📊 Live Model Performance

Tracking predictions vs actual results since launch

Races tracked
1909
Our pick won
25.0%
478 / 1909
Our predicted winner placed in the top 3
58.8%
1122 / 1909
The race winner featured in our predicted top 3
55.5%
Days pending
1

ℹī¸ Pre-race rating reflects card composition (race types, field sizes) and model confidence — not a prediction of individual races. Labels can cluster in streaks during unfavourable periods; April and January are historically the model's weakest months.

Date Pre-Race Rating Winners / Races Win % Place %
2026-05-18 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 54.8%
2026-05-17 Risky Day 9 / 30 30.0% 60.0%
2026-05-16 Risky Day 8 / 60 13.3% 40.0%
2026-05-15 Risky Day 15 / 52 28.8% 44.2%
2026-05-14 Risky Day 9 / 35 25.7% 57.1%
2026-05-13 Risky Day 14 / 42 33.3% 66.7%
2026-05-12 Risky Day 14 / 39 35.9% 61.5%
2026-05-11 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 54.8%
2026-05-10 Risky Day 6 / 22 27.3% 63.6%
2026-05-09 Risky Day 16 / 64 25.0% 48.4%
2026-05-08 Risky Day 9 / 49 18.4% 55.1%
2026-05-07 Risky Day 12 / 41 29.3% 51.2%
2026-05-06 Risky Day 12 / 34 35.3% 52.9%
2026-05-05 Risky Day 11 / 32 34.4% 65.6%
2026-05-04 Risky Day 7 / 59 11.9% 45.8%
2026-05-03 Risky Day 9 / 36 25.0% 44.4%
2026-05-02 Risky Day 13 / 53 24.5% 69.8%
2026-05-01 Risky Day 8 / 43 18.6% 60.5%
2026-04-30 Risky Day 11 / 43 25.6% 53.5%
2026-04-29 Risky Day 13 / 38 34.2% 60.5%
2026-04-28 Risky Day 7 / 35 20.0% 48.6%
2026-04-27 Risky Day 7 / 28 25.0% 50.0%
2026-04-26 Risky Day 5 / 22 22.7% 40.9%
2026-04-25 Risky Day 15 / 59 25.4% 54.2%
2026-04-24 Risky Day 10 / 51 19.6% 60.8%
2026-04-23 Risky Day 10 / 39 25.6% 51.3%
2026-04-22 Risky Day 13 / 34 38.2% 70.6%
2026-04-21 Risky Day 10 / 29 34.5% 51.7%
2026-04-20 Risky Day 10 / 37 27.0% 48.6%
2026-04-19 Risky Day 6 / 29 20.7% 48.3%
2026-04-18 Risky Day 9 / 45 20.0% 48.9%
2026-04-17 Risky Day 8 / 35 22.9% 42.9%
2026-04-16 Risky Day 5 / 29 17.2% 51.7%
2026-04-15 Risky Day 9 / 38 23.7% 52.6%
2026-04-14 Risky Day 10 / 35 28.6% 51.4%
2026-04-13 Risky Day 13 / 29 44.8% 65.5%
2026-04-12 Risky Day 11 / 36 30.6% 52.8%
2026-04-11 Risky Day 11 / 44 25.0% 43.2%
2026-04-10 Risky Day 10 / 43 23.3% 62.8%
2026-04-09 Thin Day 10 / 35 28.6% 57.1%
2026-04-08 Risky Day 13 / 38 34.2% 60.5%
2026-04-07 Risky Day 2 / 23 8.7% 47.8%
2026-04-06 Risky Day 10 / 52 19.2% 53.8%
2026-04-05 Risky Day 10 / 44 22.7% 61.4%
2026-04-04 Risky Day 11 / 55 20.0% 43.6%
2026-04-03 Risky Day 2 / 22 9.1% 27.3%
2026-04-02 Risky Day 5 / 27 18.5% 59.3%
2026-04-01 Risky Day 9 / 33 27.3% 54.5%
2026-03-31 Risky Day 9 / 27 33.3% 63.0%
Going Races Accuracy
Soft To Heavy 7 57.1%
Firm 22 45.5%
Good To Soft 131 28.2%
Good To Firm 181 27.1%
Good 928 25.4%
Standard 272 24.6%
Good To Yielding 93 22.6%
Standard To Slow 45 22.2%
Soft 88 21.6%
Yielding 110 19.1%
Yielding To Soft 32 12.5%
Type Races Accuracy
NH Flat 68 29.4%
Hurdle 427 27.9%
Chase 252 25.0%
Flat 1162 23.8%
Race Class Races Accuracy
Novice 189 38.1%
Maiden 265 34.0%
Conditions/Stakes 180 30.0%
NH Flat 68 29.4%
Handicap 1141 20.1%
Novice Handicap 66 19.7%
Distance Races Accuracy
Sprint (≤6f) 379 21.6%
7-8f 375 25.6%
9-10f 188 19.7%
11-12f 140 26.4%
13-16f 203 28.6%
Staying (17f+) 624 26.9%
Field Size Races Accuracy
2-5 runners 236 41.1%
6-8 runners 659 29.7%
9-12 runners 663 20.5%
13+ runners 351 14.0%
Course Races Accuracy
Salisbury 14 57.1%
Killarney 23 43.5%
Stratford 14 42.9%
Hereford 26 42.3%
Ludlow 12 41.7%
Ffos Las 20 40.0%
Gowran Park 29 37.9%
Doncaster 29 37.9%
Perth 38 36.8%
Kelso 22 36.4%
Sligo 14 35.7%
Redcar 28 35.7%
Newcastle 14 35.7%
Bath 51 33.3%
Carlisle 15 33.3%
York 21 33.3%
Huntingdon 12 33.3%
Newcastle (AW) 28 32.1%
Newton Abbot 25 32.0%
Chepstow 22 31.8%
Fakenham 19 31.6%
Yarmouth 35 31.4%
Southwell 13 30.8%
Hexham 23 30.4%
Limerick 23 30.4%
Bellewstown 14 28.6%
Downpatrick 7 28.6%
Down Royal 14 28.6%
Wetherby 7 28.6%
Plumpton 21 28.6%
Hamilton 21 28.6%
Musselburgh 28 28.6%
Southwell (AW) 88 27.3%
Chester 22 27.3%
Pontefract 22 27.3%
Sandown 15 26.7%
Leopardstown 30 26.7%
Sedgefield 12 25.0%
Bangor-on-Dee 20 25.0%
Ripon 28 25.0%
Fontwell 24 25.0%
Dundalk (AW) 21 23.8%
Catterick 21 23.8%
Newbury 30 23.3%
Goodwood 13 23.1%
Exeter 13 23.1%
Taunton 13 23.1%
Kempton (AW) 45 22.2%
Lingfield (AW) 50 22.0%
Wolverhampton (AW) 85 21.2%
Tramore 15 20.0%
Wincanton 15 20.0%
Market Rasen 20 20.0%
Cork 46 19.6%
Thirsk 31 19.4%
Nottingham 31 19.4%
Ayr 21 19.0%
Navan 16 18.8%
Punchestown 48 18.8%
Warwick 27 18.5%
Leicester 22 18.2%
Naas 23 17.4%
Aintree 29 17.2%
Haydock 29 17.2%
Newmarket 59 16.9%
Epsom 6 16.7%
Lingfield 13 15.4%
Windsor 28 14.3%
Ascot 21 14.3%
Clonmel 22 13.6%
Wexford 22 13.6%
Kilbeggan 15 13.3%
Uttoxeter 15 13.3%
Ballinrobe 8 12.5%
Roscommon 16 12.5%
Fairyhouse 23 8.7%
Beverley 30 6.7%
Curragh 24 4.2%

When our top pick has X% predicted probability, how often does it actually win?

Predicted range Races Avg predicted Actual win %
Under 15% 608 12.1% 14.6%
15-20% 555 17.4% 22.7%
20-25% 380 22.3% 28.4%
25-30% 203 27.1% 36.5%
30-40% 129 34.1% 49.6%
40-50% 30 44.2% 43.3%
50%+ 4 53.9% 100.0%